Although the Ashes has been decided, the Boxing Day Test will remain as the blockbuster event of the Australian cricket summer.
With the public scrutiny around the English cricket team already reaching fever pitch, the last thing Ben Stokes’ side will want to do is end the series winless and return home to a hostile reception with their tail between their legs.
Unfortunately, Melbourne is not an easy place to bounce back, especially when your batters have been short on form.
The MCG has been a difficult place to score for a number of years.
Since 2020, across the Sheffield Shield and Test cricket, the average first innings score has been just 267.
Between now and 2023, only twice has a 400 been breached. On top of that, England have only beaten Australia once at the MCG this century. In 2010, they thrashed the Aussies by an innings and 157 runs and drew in 2017 thanks to an unbeaten 244 from then captain Alastair Cook.
They will face up against a further diminished Australian side who will be without stalwart tweaker Nathan Lyon and captain Pat Cummins. Add to that equation an unsettled middle order who are seemingly each battling for their spot in the line-up, and the chances of an England upset appear not out of the question.
Cummins will be a significant out considering his superlative record at Melbourne’s colosseum. He has taken 41 wickets at an average of 17 over his four Tests there.
Mitchell Starc will once again take the helm, although he will need to lift his output. Melbourne hasn’t been overly pleasant to the left-armer. From his eight tests, Starc has picked up 26 wickets at a fairly unimpressive average of 33. But in his one outing against the old enemy in Melbourne, Starc claimed 5-83 across the two innings.
He should receive a chop-out from under-pressure all-rounder Cameron Green, who will have fond memories of the ground. Against South Africa in 2022, Green made 51* from his single innings and took his maiden five-wicket haul in the first innings to give the Aussies the upper hand. They eventually ran out comfortable victors, winning by an innings and 182 runs.
Pat Cummins celebrates the wicket of England’s Jamie Smith. (AP Photo/James Elsby)
Then of course, there is the man they call “barrel”. Scott Boland’s three tests at his home ground have been an overwhelming success. He’s taken 16 wickets, including the instantly classic 6-7 spell in 2022, at an average of 14.62.
Equally intimidating, since 2020, Boland has taken 50 wickets at 19 on his home deck for Victoria. Boland’s probing line and length have helped impede the normally free-scoring Bazballers. Boland’s economy of 3.4 runs an over is the best for any Australian quick in the current line-u,p and 25-ball stretch of dot balls in last matches second innings portends further success on Boxing Day.
Likely to return from vertigo and steer the ship in Cummins’ absence is the inimitable Steve Smith.
Like most arenas, ‘Smudge’ has excelled, but the MCG remains a happy hunting ground for Australia’s number four. From his 20 innings, Smith has amassed 1246 runs at 77 – clearly the highest average and success at the ground.
This includes five hundreds, including four in consecutive Tests from 2014 to 2017. Smith has comfortably the best record in Melbourne out of his fellow batters.
Even cult hero and newly minted opener Travis Head averages just 28 at the ground and has made just 18 runs from his last four digs at the MCG in Tests.
After missing out on the relatively placid Adelaide Oval surface, Smith will be eager to make good on his currently sub-standard Ashes and bring up his first hundred of the summer in front of a packed crowd.
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