The best thing about T20 cricket is it is largely unpredictable. Teams can score 60 from 25 balls to win games or collapse like a Jenga tower to lose them. The volatile nature of it is part of its global appeal. The wilder the better.
As a result, the following fearless predictions are not really that fearless in the traditional sense. Nothing is off the table in this format. Instead, think of these predictions as left-field, bold or slightly crazy. Fearless is standing there waiting for Mitchell Starc to unleash a thunderbolt you are not just expected to survive, but also score from.
From behind a computer screen, these are about as fearless as it gets.
India will not make the semi-finals
Ok, before one billion people clog the comments section below, let us explain.
Firstly, India did not make the semi-final stage of the T20 World Cup 12 months ago. That tournament was played in conditions ideal for their spinners and batters, but they flopped. It was a terrible underachievement. Why would they be any better this time around?
Now they are entering the World Cup without Jasprit Bumrah and Ravindra Jadeja, who are both injured. That’s eight quality overs they must find from other bowlers in conditions that no longer suit them, plus middle order runs from Jadeja.
In their side of the draw, they have South Africa, Bangladesh and Pakistan, plus two more nations which are yet to be determined. South Africa and Pakistan are better placed to progress, and Bangladesh should not be discounted either.
Group 2 is far more difficult than Group 1, which has Australia and England as the two clear standouts.
Jasprit Bumrah celebrates a wicket for the Mumbai Indians against Chennai Super Kings. (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
Let’s be honest, India should be the dominant T20 nation in the world. They own the most lucrative tournament, have the largest population of cricketers, and put the most money into succeeding. But they aren’t. They’ve only won one T20 World Cup in seven attempts.
Something isn’t quite right, and hard, bouncy wickets are not the place to reverse this bizarre trend.
Kane Williamson is a liability in New Zealand’s batting order
Ok, that almost hurts to type. The Kiwi batter has not hit a 50 in any format in 2022 and may be still struggling following elbow surgery.
Williamson’s overall T20 record is solid but nothing near his Test or ODI numbers. His strike-rate of 122 is considered low these days and it drops below 100 for the 2022 calendar year. A bit like Steve Smith for Australia, he will be useful in lower scoring games or when his team is in trouble, but the form line does not bode well for more meaningful contributions.
The reality is if Williamson is struggling in Test cricket, he can grind his way out of it. Even in ODI games he has time to find touch. But there is no room for chewing up balls in the T20 arena. His poor form has the potential to derail New Zealand’s already flimsy hopes of success.
India v Pakistan will get a bigger crowd than the final if Australia does not make it
Let’s get one thing straight, it’s impossible to get 100,000 people to the MCG for a cricket game. The sight screen netting takes away too many seats. But, it is possible to get a capacity crowd everywhere else around the stadium.
When India and Pakistan face-off on October 23 at Australia’s largest sporting arena, expect a crowd of around 95,000 screaming fans. It will be monstrous.
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Yes, if the Aussies make the final, then we can expect a similar attendance for the decider on November 13. But if they bow out earlier, India v Pakistan will be the biggest crowd of the tournament, in a Super 12 stage game too!
India and Pakistan rarely play against each other these days, so this match will be extra special. The Sunday evening time slot is also perfect for a huge match.
Aaron Finch won’t play for Australia after this World Cup
Australian captain Aaron Finch is hanging on by the skin of his teeth. He’s been below his best for the best part of 18 months, aside from occasional knocks which have kept him afloat.
Yes, he still has the talent to hit bombs – especially off spin bowlers – but he is more vulnerable early now than he ever was.
On Wednesday night, Adam Gilchrist – himself a gun white ball opener in his prime – noted how technical weaknesses in his stance make it almost impossible for the Victorian to hit the ball on the up with any power. The truth is, Finch has never been technically perfect. It’s why he didn’t succeed in Test cricket and why his First Class average is in the mid 30s.
(Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
But his eye was always sharp enough and hands whippy enough in white ball cricket to mask any deficiencies. Not anymore. He remains an excellent leader and stability is important, but Finch is hardly an automatic selection in the best XI anymore. Of course, the Aussies will stick with him. The coach is a long-time mate of Finch and as previously mentioned, consistency in selection is critical. Could they cut their losses and send him to the middle order? It wouldn’t be the worst call.
One thing is for sure, it is too late to drop him now. But at the end of the tournament, Finch will retire or be told to finish up: Most likely the former. There are two years until the next T20 World Cup and he can still make some cash playing franchise tournaments globally. It’s been a fantastic short form career, but everyone has a use by date and Finch is nudging his.
Afghanistan will finish third in Group 1, ahead of New Zealand
Ok, we aren’t bold enough to predict Afghanistan making the semi-finals, but there is a world where the Afghans win enough games to push the Aussies and English for a berth in the next phase.
Their spin is widely seen as their weapon, but they also have quicks and batters who can win matches on their own. All-rounder Mohammad Nabi is their captain and a quality, experienced player many fans will know from his time at the Melbourne Renegades.
Mujeeb ur Rahman and Rashid Khan will bowl eight miserly overs between them, and up-and-comer Rahmanullah Gurbaz can be a handful at the top of the batting order. Najibullah Zadran is well known for his ability to finish off innings, then there is Nabi himself.
The issue for Afghanistan is what happens if some or all of these players fail. They don’t have the depth of other nations, but it’s worth noting they have qualified automatically for the Super 12 stage of the tournament, ahead of the West Indies and Sri Lanka. That should mean something.
Wednesday October 26 at the MCG is the date you should pencil into your diary. New Zealand v Afghanistan at the MCG. An upset is well and truly on the cards.
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