1. Pull Your Head in England, it’ll be 3-1 Australia
Surprisingly, this would be England’s best result on Australian shores since 2010-11.
In the three series since they’ve gone winless, losing 5-0 in 2013-14 and 4-0 in 2017-18 and 2021-22, and no current player has tasted Test victory on Australian shores.
So long ago was England’s last victory on Australian shores, the Sydney Test at the end of the 2010-11 summer, that veteran Usman Khawaja was debuting, Steve Smith batted at seven and the spin duties were shouldered by Michael Beer.
This summer is undeniably one of England’s better chances at snagging at least a match, if not the series. Some English pundits such as perennial agitator Stuart Broad and David Lloyd are harping on about winning the series, but that would be a truly outlandish result when you break down the teams, form and recent history.
It’s true that England boast some weapons they haven’t in some time: Ben Duckett is a David Warner-esque scorer at the top, while Joe Root and Harry Brook have genuine middle order pedigree. In Ben Stokes they have a certified match winner and leader, and young keeper Jamie Smith has flourished in his short career.
Returning too is Jofra Archer, accompanied by the likes of Mark Wood, forming an attack that should trouble the Australians. It’s a strong side, no doubt, but not without its caveats that Australia’s veteran core should expose.
The first drop position is up in the air, between former vice-captain Ollie Pope and bolter Jacob Bethell. England Cricket director Rob Key has spoken lavishly of Bethell’s “generational” talent, but the young left-hander has yet to put promise to the scorer’s page in any consistency befit for a No.3 option.
In 25 first-class matches, he averages 27.39 and has only one professional century to his name (in ODI cricket). He certainly passes the eye test with flashy shot making and an aesthetically pleasing technique, but will he pass the test posed by Cummins, Starc, Hazlewood, Boland and Lyon?
If there was a group of bowlers most likely to find and exploit a young batter’s weaknesses on the biggest stage, it’d be the Australian veterans.
Pope has played 61 Test matches, averaging 35.36 and the loss of his leadership positions seems to indicate his selection is not guaranteed. On the last Ashes tour to Australia, he mustered 67 runs in six innings, nine runs less than Nathan Lyon managed in his five stints with the bat.
Jamie Smith. (Photo by Visionhaus/Getty Images)
Then there’s the perennial whipping boy, Zak Crawley. Like Australia, England seem to have one opener causing fans and selectors headaches.
While Duckett is averaging an impressive 42.86 for his career, Crawley has managed just 31.55 from his 59 matches. In his favour, he has scored comparatively strongly against Australia with an average of 43.06 in eight appearances, though five were on home decks built for Bazball’s high scoring.
It’s no secret he can be very hit and miss, and England will be desperate for their incumbent to get off to a strong start. They haven’t named a backup opener in their initial squad, so their success depends even more heavily on the much-maligned Crawley.
The bowling is where the biggest questions lie for England: not just the quality, but their durability across the series.
Jofra Archer is world class when on song, but he’s barely played any cricket in the last four years as he battles injury. To expect him to play most of the tour would be unreasonable but the bowling attack looks thin without him. Fast and injury prone too is speedster Mark Wood, whose wholehearted effort is never in doubt but often struggles to string together test matches.
Beyond Wood and Archer is an inexperienced bowling unit comprised of Josh Tongue, Gus Atkinson, Brydon Carse and Matthew Potts. All are respectable performers but compared to the veteran Australian unit on their home deck, its not much of a contest.
At least one will partner Archer and Wood in Perth, and with expected injury and/or load management, it wouldn’t surprise to see more of England’s second line of quicks in the line-up throughout the series. Throw in the vast experience and output difference between the Lyon and Shoaib Bashir and its hard to envision how England can consistently expect to better their Australian opponents across a long, arduous series.
2. Joe Root hits a first Australian century
Crisis averted everyone – Matthew Hayden won’t be walking around the MCG naked. The legendary opener promised to do so if Root failed to score his maiden Test century on Australian shores, indicating his confidence in the veteran to tick off the milestone on his fourth tour Down Under.
Root has been exceptional with the bat of late, after some early concerns about adapting to Brendon McCullum’s aggressive game philosophy. Not only has Root been scoring runs consistently under the Bazball regime, but he’s been churning out centuries with frightening consistency.
In every multi-Test series he’s played in starting from a tour of Pakistan in late 2022, Root has scored at least one century. Two tours on New Zealand, a tour of India and another tour of Pakistan have all produced centuries, as have the home Ashes and runs against visiting West Indies and Indian outfits. It would be surprising then if Root couldn’t muster a century in five matches, even against this stellar Australian side.
There’s less pressure on the talismanic batsman than on previous tours – the emergence of Brook in the middle order and valuable runs from Ben Duckett up top have eased the burden on Root’s shoulders. He seems to be thriving in a lineup brimming with confidence and clarity, and has never seemed more primed to ton-up on Australian shores.
Cameron Green. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images for Cricket Australia)
3.Cam Green reminds us of his class
Some people don’t even want to see Cameron Green in the lineup for the Perth Test. While there’s questions over his bowling loads, especially with a recent side strain, he should still be selected on his batting alone. He’s probably the biggest selection domino in the side, with the fate of others tied to where he bats and if he can bowl.
There will be a temptation to slot Marnus Labuschagne back into his preferred first drop based off his immense run scoring, and if Green is fit to bowl this would make sense in cramming the country’s best batters into the same line-up.
Beau Webster would be desperately unlucky to miss, but Green is the superior batter at the elite level and could reach new heights this summer. If Green can’t bowl however, he should still be selected as a performing incumbent – perhaps in this scenario Labuschagne may be pressured to open.
What sometimes hurts Green’s reputation is that most of his success has come overseas. He’s been player of the match on a rank turner in Sri Lanka, hit a century in India and mauled New Zealand for a career high 174* in early 2024.
Even the recent tour of the West Indies against the rampaging Shamar Joseph and Jayden Seales he was the third highest run scorer for the series and faced the most balls of any batter.
It’s not to say Green will be Australia’s best, but he’s due to remind the Australian public just why the selectors hold him in such high regard.
A century early in the series would go a long way, and if he can get back to bowling then Australia will have a real weapon on their hands once more.
>Cricket News
%20(3).jpeg)
0 Comments