Pat Cummins is set to miss the first, some, all or none of the Tests in the upcoming Ashes series depending on which prognosis you believe from the many timelines being bandied about.
The Australian brains trust needs to come up with a Frankenstein’s monster of solutions to the many facets that Cummins brings to the table.
First and foremost is bowling, but then there is also his leadership, both on-field and off, and his under-rated batting which has dug Australia out of more than a few holes in recent years.
Assuming it is Scott Boland who replaces Cummins when he rules himself out of the first Test in Perth on November 21, that means Mitchell Starc will go up to eight and the home side will have a lengthy tail of Nathan Lyon and Josh Hazlewood batting one slot higher than they would ideally come in.
Cummins’ batting was a thorn in England’s side during the 2023 Ashes with his unbeaten 44 steering them to a crucial two-wicket win in the opening match of the series via a 55-run stand with Lyon.
His career average of 20.47 against England is nothing too special but he has topped 30 against them but he has made 30-plus against them six times to provide stubborn lower-order resistance.
Starc has struggled in recent clashes with England with six dismissals in single-figures in his past nine trips to the crease.
After making an impressive yet ultimately heart-breaking 99 in his ninth Test in 2013, the left-hander has never been able to fulfil his promise with the bat to turn into a bowling all-rounder.
In the 34 Tests he’s played since the last time England toured Down Under four years ago, Starc has made just 571 runs at an average of 14.64, well below his expectations and his talent level.
Lyon’s reflexes at the crease seem to be dimming, which is to be expected for a player in their late 30s, and he is very much a hit and hope tailender these days rather than someone who can be relied upon to stick around too long if there’s a recognised batter at the other end.
The weaker tail than usual will place added pressure on all-rounder Beau Webster at six as well as keeper Alex Carey.
Beau Webster. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images for Cricket Australia)
Webster has been unable to get any game time in during the first two rounds of the Sheffield Shield due to an ankle sprain but with Marnus Labuschagne belting another ton for Queensland on Thursday, the Tasmanian’s spot is not as secure as it was just a couple of weeks ago.
Carey missed South Australia’s opening match due to the thoroughly pointless T20 series in New Zealand.
He was out for just one on Wednesday against Queensland and after he averaged just 22.22 in the last Ashes with only one half-century amid the firestorm over his controversial Jonny Bairstow dismissal, the 34-year-old again shapes as a key player in Australia’s line-up.
Carey averages less at home (31.68 from 20 Tests) than he does on foreign soil (36.91 from 22) and his returns against England (383 at 21.27) are by far his worst against any nation.
With Jofra Archer, Mark Wood and Ben Stokes adept at tearing through lower orders, Carey’s middle-order runs and time at the crease will be crucial in the battle for the urn.
Alex Carey. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
If Cummins is out for multiple Tests and Boland, Starc or Hazlewood is unavailable for whatever reason, batting skills could play a part in the selection panel determining who will be the next cab off the rank.
Michael Neser, Sean Abbott and Xavier Bartlett bring the most to the table in the batting department out of the contenders for Australia’s bowling bullpen for the summer.
Cummins’ absence opens up the chance for Steve Smith to again step into the captaincy role.
After filling in for the Sri Lanka tour earlier this year and at intermittent times in recent years, the Aussies will lose nothing in the tactical stakes with Smith at the helm.
But the calming presence that Cummins brings to the team is not easily replaced and it would be wrong to underplay the impact that his absence could have on the dressing room.
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